Saturday, September 27, 2008

Poll Numbers Have NDP Seeing "Red" -- In their Cross-Hairs

For the record, I'm no fan of the "horse race" narrative of election campaigns, and I do think that media outlets devote altogether too much time and space to discussion of polling results. Still, like an unopened bag of Doritos, sometimes the temptation is too inviting.

The Toronto Star ("NDP Surge in Cities as Liberals Languish: Poll) reveals the numbers from the latest Harris-Decima Poll, which gave the Conservatives 38%, the Liberals 23%, the NDP 19% and the Greens and Bloc 9% each.

"The movement towards the NDP, if it continues or even holds at current levels, raises the stakes dramatically for the Liberals and creates a significantly greater margin of comfort for the Conservatives," Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson said in a release.

But, of course, it gets worse for the beleaguered Red Machine:

In the cities, NDP support reached 22 per cent, up from a campaign low of 14 per cent, while the Liberals languished at 25 per cent – their lowest level of the campaign.

But, wait. There's more.

Angus Reid also release some new numbers today.

  • Conservatives 40%
  • Liberals 21%
  • N.D.P. 21%
  • Bloc Quebecois 10%
  • Green 7%
  • Other 2%

The Grits and the NDP are even at 21 per cent, with the Liberals now nine points below their 2006 total (30.2%) and the New Democrats surpassing their last showing in a federal ballot (17.5%). The Bloc Québécois is once again in fourth place with 10 per cent, while the Greens fell to seven per cent.

As has been the case for the first three weeks of the campaign, the Tories remain dominant in Alberta (67%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (52%). In Ontario, the Conservatives have amassed a 12-point lead over the Liberals (39% to 27%), with the NDP a close third (25%).

You read that right. According the Angus Reid's numbers collected around the middle of this past week, the N.D.P. is tied with the Liberals, and the Conservatives now have a comfortable lead in formerly fortress Ontario.

No comments: